Do prop hit rates predict the next game?
"He's cleared this in 5 straight" is the most repeated line in prop betting. We run a hit-rate report, so we checked our own homework: 3,090 NFL main lines from Weeks 4 to 9, graded against the box scores.
The short answer
On a main line, no. Whatever the player did in his last three games, the line cleared between 46% and 47% of the time the next game. Hot, cold or in between, it was the same coin flip.
Main lines, by how his last 3 games went
| His last 3 games | Lines | Cleared next game | Prices said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 for 3 | 336 | 47% | 51% |
| 2 of 3 | 1,178 | 47% | 50% |
| 1 of 3 | 1,185 | 47% | 49% |
| 0 for 3 | 391 | 46% | 48% |
NFL Weeks 4 to 9. Overs on every main DraftKings line (yards, receptions, attempts, completions and the rest). Anytime touchdown bets are counted separately below.
One more thing in that table: in every row, overs cleared a little less often than their prices said. That is 6 weeks of one season. It is what happened, not a rule.
Why the streak doesn't carry
The sportsbook reads the same game logs you do. When a receiver goes over 59.5 yards three weeks running, his next line isn't 59.5 any more. The book moves it up until clearing it is close to even again. The streak is real. It is also already in the number you're betting against.
That is why every row of our report prints two things side by side: the hit rate, which is what he did, and the fair chance, which is what the prices say happens next. A 5 for 5 line with a 51% fair chance is a 51% line.
Where a streak did mean more: lower lines
Sportsbooks also post lower lines for the same player at a shorter price (alt lines). We took the highest DraftKings line each player had cleared in every game of a stretch, then looked at the next game.
Safer lines he had cleared every time
| He had cleared it in | Lines | Cleared next game | Prices said |
|---|---|---|---|
| Every one of his last 3 | 721 | 62% | 63% |
| Every one of his last 5 | 267 | 64% | 70% |
| Every game this season | 337 | 68% | 70% |
These pay less than the main line, often a lot less. "Prices said" is the average fair chance going in.
They cleared more often, which is the whole point of a lower line. The prices on the 5 for 5 lines said 70%. So even the safest-looking streak came in under its price. "Every game so far" was not every game from there on.
Touchdowns are their own thing
Anytime touchdown bets have no line to move, only a price. So the streak does show up: players who had been scoring kept scoring more often. The price showed it too.
Anytime touchdown, by his last 3 games
| His last 3 games | Lines | Cleared next game | Prices said |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored in 3 of 3 | 39 | 56% | 49% |
| 2 of 3 | 169 | 34% | 37% |
| 1 of 3 | 435 | 23% | 23% |
| 0 of 3 | 828 | 14% | 13% |
"Cleared" here means he scored. Only 39 lines sat in the top row, so read that one loosely.
So what is a hit rate good for?
- Knowing the player. His role, his floor, how often he gets there. That is worth knowing before you put him on a ticket.
- Finding a line you like. The report's Safer lines view shows the highest line he has cleared every time, and what it costs.
- Not as a forecast. A streak tells you what he did. The fair chance tells you what the bet is.
How we counted
- Every DraftKings player prop line our pulls saw in Weeks 4 to 9.
- Graded from the official box scores, the same grader as our public record.
- A player needed at least 3 games this season before the week being graded.
- If he didn't play that week, the line is left out, the way a sportsbook voids the bet.
- "Prices said" is the line's fair chance: the sportsbooks' own prices with the books' cut taken out.
- The numbers update every week the report does. Parlays mostly lose. These numbers are part of why.
We also run the NBA and NHL hit-rate reports. This page counts NFL only. Or skip the homework and pull the lever: every ticket shows its real odds either way.