Week 10 hit-rate report
Every player line on this week's board, checked against his own games this season: how often he cleared it, what DraftKings charges, and what the price says his chance really is. Tap a price to start a ticket.
DraftKings prices as of Tue Nov 10, 6:53 AM PT · game logs through Week 9
Takes the most consistent lines in the view you pick (60% or better, every-game hitters first), one per game, priced at DraftKings. Press again to reshuffle.
5 for 5 The glory boys · 4
- Blake Corum LAR Anytime TD vs ARI 5 for 5 (TD, TD, TD, TD, TD) · DraftKings +110
- Christian McCaffrey SF Anytime TD vs DAL 5 for 5 (TD, TD, TD, TD, TD) · DraftKings -360
- James Cook III BUF Anytime TD vs NYJ 5 for 5 (TD, TD, TD, TD, TD) · DraftKings -190
- Drake Maye NE Over 1.5 passing TDs vs DET 5 for 5 (3, 2, 2, 3, 4) · DraftKings -147
Only games he played count; a missed week isn't a miss. Bold numbers cleared the line. Prices are DraftKings's, when DraftKings posts that line. The fair chance is a market snapshot, not a prediction. A streak isn't a promise. Lines move; check your book.
How to read the report
What is a hit rate?
How often a player cleared this exact line in his own recent games. 4/5 on over 59.5 receiving yards means he had 60 or more in 4 of his last 5 games. Only games he played count, so a missed week is not a miss. Bold numbers in a row are the games that cleared.
Does a hot streak mean the line hits again?
Not by itself. Sportsbooks read the same game logs and set the main line close to a coin flip. In Weeks 4 to 9, main lines that were 3 for 3 cleared 47% of the time the next game (336 lines, touchdowns aside). Lines that were 0 for 3 cleared 46% (391 lines). That is why every row shows the fair chance next to the streak: the streak is what he did, the fair chance is what the prices say happens next. Each tier on this page prints its own record, updated every week.
What are safer lines?
DraftKings posts lower lines for the same player at a shorter price (alt lines). The Safer lines view finds the highest one he has cleared in every game of the window. They pay less, and "every game so far" is not every game from here on: in Weeks 4 to 9, lines like these cleared 64% of the time the next game (267 lines).
What is the fair chance?
The line's real chance according to the sportsbooks' own prices, with the books' cut taken out. It is a market snapshot from our last pull, not a prediction. A 5 for 5 line with a 55% fair chance is a 55% line.
What do the green and red matchups mean?
Green helps the bet and red works against it. They come from how much of that stat the opponent has allowed to his position this season and last: a defense in the 8 most generous is green for an over, one in the 8 stingiest is red (and the other way round for an under).
How does the ticket work?
Tap a price to add that leg, or use Build it for me to take the most consistent lines in the view you picked, one per game. The bar at the bottom shows the payout at DraftKings and the real odds. Open ticket loads it in the parlay machine, where you can swap legs, compare what each book pays and save the image. Two legs from one game are priced by the book as a same-game parlay and usually pay less.
How often does it update?
With every lines pull: Wednesday when the week opens, then Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday mornings (Pacific). Game logs run through Week 9. Lines move, so check the line and price on your slip.