NHL parlay fair price checker: is your price fair?
Your book quoted you an NHL parlay price. This checker works out what the ticket is really worth: enter each leg's price for your side and the other side of the same market — a puck line, a total, or a moneyline — and it removes the book's cut from every leg, multiplies the fair chances together, and puts the fair payout next to the one you were offered. Neutral numbers, no lecture — what you do with them is your call.
NHL note: puck lines, totals and moneylines are two-sided markets, so they check cleanly here. Player props (points, assists, shots on goal) check only when your book lists both the over and the under at the same line — an over-only listing has no other side to read a fair price from, so this checker cannot price it; treat any fair chance for such a leg as an estimate, not a market price. Anytime-goal legs list only the yes side, so they cannot be checked this way at all. Same-game parlays are repriced by books for correlation — a player's points and assists can come from the same goal, and his team's result moves with both — so this multiplication does not describe them either. The NHL machine on this site is live with daily pools; no current NHL lines are quoted in the examples below, and the examples are arithmetic only.
Your legs
American odds (for example -110 or +200). Use prices from one book for the whole ticket — a parlay is placed at a single book, so its fair price is read from that book's own market.
The headline
This ticket's real odds, from the market's fair price
| Your book | Fair price | |
|---|---|---|
| Parlay odds | ||
| Chance it implies | ||
| Payout on your stake |
The book's cut is the gap between the two payouts, as a share of the fair payout. It is information about the price, not a prediction about the ticket. Lines move — re-check with current prices before you bet. Same-game parlays are repriced by books for correlation, so this multiplication does not describe them. Legs with no two-sided market (some alt lines and anytime-goal props) cannot be checked this way; their fair chance is an estimate, not a market price.
Two NHL examples, worked in full
Example 1 — three puck lines at -110
Three NHL puck-line legs, each priced -110 on your side and -110 on the other side. Each leg's fair chance is exactly 50%. Fair chance for the ticket: 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 12.5% — 1 in 8 — a fair price of +700. If your book quotes +596, a $10 stake pays $69.60 at the book against $80.00 at the fair price: a $10.40 gap, 13.0% of the fair payout. Try it: the checker above is pre-loaded with exactly these legs.
Example 2 — a moneyline, a total, and a puck line
A moneyline leg at -140 / +120 (fair chance 56.2%), a total leg at -115 / -105 (fair chance 51.1%), and a puck-line leg at -120 / +100 (fair chance 52.2%). The moneyline's two sides imply 58.3% and 45.5%; scaled to 100%, your side's fair chance is 56.2%. Ticket fair chance: 56.2% × 51.1% × 52.2% = 15.0%, a fair price of +568. Enter -140 / +120, -115 / -105, and -120 / +100 above with a book's quoted price to see its payout beside the fair payout on your stake. These are arithmetic examples only — EXAMPLE, NOT A PICK — using round prices to show the method, not lines from any current game.
How it works, in 20 seconds
- Each price hides a chance. -150 implies 60%; +200 implies 33.3%.
- Both sides add to more than 100% — the extra is the book's cut. Scaling the two sides so they add to exactly 100% leaves the market's fair price for your side.
- Fair chances multiply. Three true coin flips: 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 12.5%, or 1 in 8 — a fair payout of +700. A book paying +596 on that ticket keeps about 13% of the fair payout.
- Compare. The checker puts your book's price and the fair price side by side, on your stake.
Want the machine to do the shopping?
Moonshot Parlays builds a ticket from real sportsbook lines — all checked against the market's fair price — and shows its real odds and what each book pays, at one picked book so the ticket can actually be placed there. Free, no sign-up.
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